With less than 500 days until the 2016 election, it's time to take a look at who has the best chance of making it to the White House after President Barack Obama.
Reuters/Gary Cameron
There have been surprises (Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump) and the expected (Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush).
But with less than three weeks to go before the first officially sanctioned Republican primary debate, it's a complete free-for-all to determine the eventual GOP nominee.
Our rankings are based on the Real Clear Politics averages of national polls and those in New Hampshire and Iowa. We also factor in candidates' fundraising numbers released this week and their momentum (or lack thereof) over the past few weeks.
Here's a look at where all the candidates stand as the campaign begins to officially ramp up.
18. Bobby Jindal, Republican, Louisiana governor
Jindal was not too long ago one of the GOP's rising stars. But his stock both nationally and in his home state of Louisiana has plummeted over the past few years, and his state has fallen into financial disarray.
The result is what's showing up in polls: He's among the bottom three nationally, in New Hampshire, and in Iowa.
Jindal and allied groups did raise $9 million last quarter, but he's in no shape to make the first debate stage.
National polling average among Republican voters: 1.4% (T-13th)
Iowa: 2% (13th)
New Hampshire: 0.1% (15th)
Iowa: 2% (13th)
New Hampshire: 0.1% (15th)
STOCK: Neutral
17. Lindsey Graham, Republican, senator from South Carolina
Graham is one of the more interesting candidates in the GOP field, something that might also work against him with the base.
He has an accomplished record on foreign policy — but is he too hawkish, even as Republican voters want the US to become more involved in world affairs?
And he is more pro-immigration reform than any other member of the field, keenly recognizing the GOP's problem with Latino voters and calling out Trump's comments on immigration. But more voters, as polls have shown, have rallied around Trump in the wake of those comments.
Graham is still barely registering in polls nationally and in the first two voting states. He has to hope that his home state of South Carolina will rally around him for a shocker.
National polling average among Republican voters: 0.6% (15th)
Iowa: 0.1 (15th)
New Hampshire: 0.5% (T-13th)
Iowa: 0.1 (15th)
New Hampshire: 0.5% (T-13th)
STOCK: Neutral
16. Martin O'Malley, Democrat, former Maryland governor
O'Malley has watched as Bernie Sanders has rapidly become the progressive alternative to Hillary Clinton that many observers thought he had a chance of becoming.
He's still not well known nationally, and he hasn't been able to get his poll numbers up since entering the race at the end of May.
But he has an extremely accomplished record as governor with achievements — on immigration, criminal justice, gay marriage, and healthcare, among others — that he can legitimately flout to progressive voters. O'Malley has to hope now, though, that Sanders implodes and more progressive types in the base rally around him.
National polling average among Democratic voters: 1.3% (4th)
Iowa: 2.6% (3rd)
New Hampshire: 2.3% (3rd)
Iowa: 2.6% (3rd)
New Hampshire: 2.3% (3rd)
STOCK: Neutral
15. Rick Santorum, Republican, former senator from Pennsylvania
It's easy to forget that Santorum won 11 states in his 2012 primary matchup with eventual Republican nominee Mitt Romney — including the Iowa caucuses.
But he's facing much stauncher competition this time around, and he hasn't solved his biggest problem from 2012 — money. He raised just over $600,000 in about a month as a candidate, the kind of money that doesn't bode well for staying power.
The state that provided his biggest win in 2012 — Iowa — also hasn't given him the same kind of love, at least yet. He's polling at just 4.7%, good for only ninth in the crowded field.
National polling average among Republican voters: 1.8% (11th)
Iowa: 4.7% (9th)
New Hampshire: 0.5% (T-15th)
Iowa: 4.7% (9th)
New Hampshire: 0.5% (T-15th)
STOCK: Falling
14. Carly Fiorina, Republican, former Hewlett-Packard CEO
Fiorina has gained a following among the Republican base since announcing her candidacy, constantly drawing some of the most enthusiastic and head-nodding crowds at large GOP summits.
She has experience as an executive that not many others in the field can point to, and she's been one of Hillary Clinton's fiercest critics.
But there might simply be too many fish in the barrel. She's still unknown, and she's outside the top-10 nationally, which means she would be relegated to the lower-tier debate. Her campaign and allied groups raised only about $4.8 million in the last quarter.
National polling average among Republican voters: 1.6% (12th)
Iowa: 2.5% (12th)
New Hampshire: 5% (8th)
Iowa: 2.5% (12th)
New Hampshire: 5% (8th)
STOCK: Neutral
13. Rick Perry, Republican, former Texas governor
Perry seems much more prepared to run in 2016 than he was in 2012. Problem is, there's more and better competition this time around.
His campaign has raised just more than $1 million since he announced his launch in early June, though outside groups supporting him did raise $17 million.
Perry, however, is battle-tested, and many observers consider him underrated. His record as governor can match up with the other candidates, and he has improved his standing with the GOP base over the last three years.
But four years after debate-gaffing his way down the presidential primary polls, Perry would be lucky to even get to the first GOP debate stage. He's currently in 10th place nationally, which puts him right on the cusp of qualifying.
National polling average among Republican voters: 2.8% (T-9th)
Iowa: 3.7% (11th)
New Hampshire: 2.5% (11th)
Iowa: 3.7% (11th)
New Hampshire: 2.5% (11th)
STOCK: Falling
12. Chris Christie, Republican, New Jersey governor
Chris Christie.
Christie seems to have a clear plan, based on his frequent visits north: He is banking on a win in New Hampshire to jump-start his run to the nomination.
The problem: He's just seventh in the Granite State, according to a recent average of polls there. And there are a lot of candidates, like Bush and Rubio, for whom New Hampshire will be extremely important.
Christie's problems in his home state have been well documented, but they're only getting worse. And he has a bit of a donor problem, too, though a super PAC supporting his run raised about $11 million last quarter.
National polling average among Republican voters: 2.8% (T-9th)
Iowa: 4% (10th)
New Hampshire: 5.3% (7th)
Iowa: 4% (10th)
New Hampshire: 5.3% (7th)
STOCK: Falling
11. John Kasich, Republican, Ohio governor
Kasich is set to enter the field on Monday as an underdog in a crowded, establishment-friendly segment of the GOP bracket. But he's the candidate who most observers point to as someone who could easily steal the nomination.
Those who talk up Kasich believe he's a Chris Christie type without the baggage of the last year and a half — that is, a successful governor with a record to point to and clear bipartisan appeal. He also has a plethora of experience from serving nearly two decades in Congress, from foreign-policy areas to his time as chair of the House Budget Committee.
But that same bipartisan brand could hurt Kasich with the GOP base. He's to the left of most GOP candidates on immigration reform, and he expanded the federal Medicaid program under the Affordable Care Act — two issues that could doom him with conservative types.
Add to that the fact that he's not in good-enough poll position to make it to the first debate stage — in his home state of Ohio, no less.
Nevertheless, he's proven to be an attractive potential candidate to donors even before officially entering the race. A super PAC formed to support his eventual likely campaign raised $11.5 million in the last fundraising quarter.
National polling average among Republican voters: 1.4% (T-13th)
Iowa: 1.7% (14th)
New Hampshire: 2% (13th)
Iowa: 1.7% (14th)
New Hampshire: 2% (13th)
STOCK: Rising
10. Mike Huckabee, Republican, former Arkansas governor
Huckabee has a very plausible path to victory: Win Iowa, do well in South Carolina, and sweep up southern states in the "SEC primary."
The problem is that he's so far failed to garner much buzz in his two-plus months on the campaign trail. And the first part of his plan is in limbo: He's just fourth in Iowa, with Rubio and Carson nipping at his heels.
This Republican field might be too crowded for a candidate like Huckabee. He is extremely popular with evangelical conservatives, but many of those conservatives look like they're flocking to candidates like Carson, Walker, and Cruz.
National polling average among Republican voters: 6.8% (6th)
Iowa: 8.5% (4th)
New Hampshire: 3.8% (T-9th)
Iowa: 8.5% (4th)
New Hampshire: 3.8% (T-9th)
STOCK: Falling
9. Bernie Sanders, Democrat, senator from Vermont
Sanders' campaign alone raised $15 million, more than any Republican presidential candidate.
The problem, of course, is that he's not going up against Republicans — his rival for the Democratic nomination is Hillary Clinton, who remains in commanding position despite a recent rise in polling from Sanders.
Still, Sanders' momentum — and the grassroots support and donations behind it — has evoked comparisons to then-Sen. Barack Obama's rise in 2008. He may not have the clout to win a nomination, but he certainly has put himself in position to influence the Democratic debate.
National polling average among Democratic voters: 14.3% (2nd)
Iowa: 21% (2nd)
New Hampshire: 30.5% (2nd)
Iowa: 21% (2nd)
New Hampshire: 30.5% (2nd)
STOCK: Rising
8. Ted Cruz, Republican, senator from Texas
Cruz is in the middle of the GOP pack polling-wise, but his eye-popping fundraising numbers mean he'll be a factor for a while.
Cruz and allied super PACs have raised more than $50 million to support his presidential bid, a number that put him behind only Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush (though Cruz did announce his candidacy before any other major candidates).
Cruz inspires a flood of enthusiasm among the GOP base, and he might be the best-positioned candidate to back up the notion that he's not a typical politician.
National polling average among Republican voters: 5.2% (8th)
Iowa: 6.5% (T-7th)
New Hampshire: 3.8% (T-9th)
Iowa: 6.5% (T-7th)
New Hampshire: 3.8% (T-9th)
STOCK: Neutral
7. Ben Carson, Republican, retired neurosurgeon
Carson is a Washington outsider who has truly shown that he can appeal to a broader electorate as a Washington outsider — though no one inside the Beltway would believe he's a serious contender for the nomination.
He's polling well nationally (fifth), in Iowa (fourth), and in New Hampshire (sixth), according to Real Clear Politics averages. And he's shown some fundraising prowess — he and allied groups have raised $8.3 million so far, behind the combined totals of just six other GOP candidates.
He hasn't had a big spike in polls, yet, and it's not clear that he can jump-start that kind of momentum with so many other qualified, experienced candidates in the field.
National polling average among Republican voters: 7.6% (5th)
Iowa: 7.5% (4th)
New Hampshire: 5.5% (6th)
Iowa: 7.5% (4th)
New Hampshire: 5.5% (6th)
STOCK: Neutral
6. Rand Paul, Republican, senator from Kentucky
Paul is the unconventional candidate of the Republican field.
But he has so far been able to latch on and break through as a clear, top-tier candidate. And he may have picked the wrong election cycle to introduce his brand of dovish foreign policy to the Republican electorate.
More and more GOP voters are concerned with America's role in the world, spurred by the fight against ISIS and an Iranian nuclear deal that most Republicans vehemently oppose.
Former George W. Bush adviser David Frum wrote this week that his candidacy is "over," arguing that if he moves right on foreign policy, he'll alienate supporters of his father, Ron Paul. And if he stays where he has been, it could alienate Republican voters at large.
Still, Paul is tied for second in Iowa and fourth in New Hampshire.
National polling average among Republican voters: 6.6% (7th)
Iowa: 9.8% (T-2nd)
New Hampshire: 8.8% (4th)
Iowa: 9.8% (T-2nd)
New Hampshire: 8.8% (4th)
STOCK: Falling
5. Marco Rubio, Republican, senator from Florida
Rubio was one of the three Republicans that Hillary Clinton called out by name during her big economic speech on Monday.
He's a younger alternative in the Republican crowd, and like Scott Walker, he also counts supporters among the establishment and the more conservative GOP base. He's polling a solid average of fourth nationally and fifth in New Hampshire among GOP candidates.
Rubio and allied outside groups have raised a combined $43.8 million since his presidential campaign launch in April, so he clearly has the donor support to stick around for the long haul.
National polling average among Republican voters: 7.8% (4th)
Iowa: 7.3% (6th)
New Hampshire: 7.5% (5th)
Iowa: 7.3% (6th)
New Hampshire: 7.5% (5th)
STOCK: Neutral
4. Donald Trump, Republican, businessman
Believe the hype — at least for now.
Trump's bombastic entry into the race has vaulted him to the top of a handful of recent national polls. And one of the biggest arguments against taking his candidacy seriously — that he isn't well liked by the GOP electorate — is starting to turn in his favor.
There's a clear appetite among Republican primary voters for someone like Trump, whose claims about illegal immigration have again inflamed the debate over immigration reform. With his claim that he's worth more than $10 billion, he likely won't be pressed for funds.
Time will tell if Trump can sustain his serious momentum and be a real factor six months from now, when voters finally start going to the polls. But for now, it's looking like he's going to be around for a while.
National polling average among Republican voters: 10.8% (2nd)
Iowa: 6.5% (T-7th)
New Hampshire: 10.5% (2nd)
Iowa: 6.5% (T-7th)
New Hampshire: 10.5% (2nd)
STOCK: Rising
3. Scott Walker, Republican, Wisconsin governor
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R)
There's a reason Hillary Clinton mentioned Walker in her first major economic speech of the campaign earlier this week: She thinks he's a potential general-election match-up waiting to happen.
There are questions about Walker's appeal as a politician, but he has a record to point to that has earned him the support of a variety of the Republican electorate, including both establishment and Tea Party types.
The polling backs up his legitimacy: He's currently polling an average of third nationally and in New Hampshire, and he leads the GOP pack in the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa. He only entered the race on Monday, so he can expect a bit of a bump, too.
National polling average among Republican voters: 9.4% (3rd)
Iowa: 17.8% (1st)
New Hampshire: 9.8% (3rd)
Iowa: 17.8% (1st)
New Hampshire: 9.8% (3rd)
STOCK: Rising
2. Jeb Bush, Republican, former Florida governor
Jeb Bush at the Economic Council in Berlin, Germany, June 9, 2015.
Bush has been even more formidable as a fundraiser than Clinton, as his campaign and allied groups combined have raised more than $114 million.
He's also the clear front-runner in the Republican field. He's polling an average of first nationally, first in New Hampshire, and second in Iowa.
Bush stumbled a bit in May, when he struggled to answer questions about the Iraq war. But he has recovered nicely in polling, and all signs point toward him being in a crowded Republican field for a long time.
National polling average among Republican voters: 17% (1st)
Iowa: 9.8% (T-2nd)
New Hampshire: 16.3% (1st)
Iowa: 9.8% (T-2nd)
New Hampshire: 16.3% (1st)
STOCK: Rising
1. Hillary Clinton, Democrat, former Secretary of State
Clinton is No. 1 here because she's proved formidable in both polling and fundraising — and she still looks to be able to glide to the Democratic nomination.
Clinton averages 54% of the Democratic vote when combining national, Iowa, and New Hampshire polls. Though these are all different races with different electorates, her strength in all three shows her overall dominance in the primary.
She's ahead by an average of about 45 points in national polling, according to Real Clear Politics. And she's up by about 34 points and 16 points, respectively, in Iowa and New Hampshire. And polls also show her consistently on top of Republican opponents in theoretical general-election matchups.
On top of that, Clinton recently announced a record first-quarter campaign haul. Combined with allied outside groups, Clinton has nearly $70 million supporting her presidential bid.
National polling average among Democratic voters: 62.8% (1st)
Iowa: 55.2% (1st)
New Hampshire: 46% (1st)
Iowa: 55.2% (1st)
New Hampshire: 46% (1st)
STOCK: Neutral
And to the polls ... here's a look at where each candidate stands in their respective parties in a combined average of national, New Hampshire, and Iowa polls.
Now check out how the candidates are doing money-wise ...
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R).
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